India:Countering a two front war threat from two hostile totalitarian states.

Panchsheel, or the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence, were first formally enunciated in the Agreement on Trade and Intercourse between the Tibet region of China and India signed on April 29, 1954, which stated, in its preamble, that the two Governments “have resolved to enter into the present Agreement based on the following principles: – i. Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, ii. Mutual non-aggression, iii. Mutual non-interference, iv. Equality and mutual benefit, and v. Peaceful co-existence.” Thereafter these five principles became the guiding principles of Non Align Movement. Adhering to these principles India avowedly upheld its sanctity, however it appears that India was not reciprocated with the similar sentiment by China or Pakistan thus India could not negotiate to its advantage while dealing with China and Pakistan. Both China and Pakistan have a substantive border with Jammu and Kashmir, and both the countries have been involved in propagating unrest in Kashmir and other parts of India. In 1962, China occupied a part of India that borders Kashmir-and entered into an alliance with Pakistan.

In recent years China has taken several steps to improve trade and investment relations with Pakistan, including among others, the signing of a bilateral treaty FTA in 2006.Trade between two countries has increased manifold which in turn has widened the gap between the amount of trade china engages in with Pakistan compared with India ,with the increase in trade and a slowdown in economic relations with India, the dependency of Pakistan on china has increased proportionally and consequently influence of China over strategic policy making structure in Pakistan too has increased accordingly.

Neutralization of Art.370 and abrogation of article 35-A along with reorganization of State of J&K into two union territories Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir an act termed by experts as epoch making events and negation of two nation theory. This move not only irked Pakistan more than anybody else, however the Chinese response remained more or less neutral. For last four decades or more despite some skirmishes the relationship between India and China has remained peaceful, but this argumentative peace came to an end on 16th June 2020 with the bloodiest skirmish between two nations in last several decades.

According to Joshua Philip an expert on Chinese affairs,  “Chinese communist Party believes in using psychological warfare and other forms of subversive strategies to weaken the enemy nation from within.
He claims that Chinese have a strategic plan with their wide network in other countries cultivated over decades of engagement and creation of a ‘fifth column’ in these nations. The broader principles of this plan include to strangle them with their own system while exploiting the fault-lines and controversial issues in subject nation. The solo objective of their activities is create chaos and confusion in masses.

 

He further claims that Chinese strategy includes to work on exploiting masses and the media in these subject countries. If a country believes in Freedom of speech manage protests in their own backyard calling them out. If a state believes in free press ,China will start up state run media in that country eventually using the media  to unleash propaganda and lie to the gullible population.

 

Chinese have a firm and robust strategy in trade and commerce which aggressively demolishes the indigenous trade and commerce in subject nations. A State which believes in free markets, Chinese will bring state run companies who sell below cost and put the indigenous companies out of business. The fate of these companies eventually ends up as the subsidiaries of Chinese state run companies or end up closing their units.

The Chinese military has a defined ‘3Ws’ Three pronged military doctrines of war” which includes Psychological Warfare, Media Warfare and Legal Warfare to destabilize the subject nation.

Psychological warfare  is the planned tactical use of propaganda, threats, and other non-combat techniques to mislead, intimidate, demoralize, or otherwise influence the thinking or behavior of an enemy. China. According to U.S. military analysts, attacking the enemy’s mind is an important element of the People’s Republic of China‘s military strategy. This type of warfare is rooted in the Chinese Stratagems outlined by Sun Tzu in The Art of War and Thirty-Six Stratagems.

China has employed media warfare as a tool progressing its plan of destabilizing the subject nations and promoting its propaganda. Like in US, lobbyists paid by Chinese-backed institutions are cultivating vocal supporters known as “third-party spokespeople” to deliver Beijing’s message, and working to sway popular perceptions of Chinese rule in Tibet. Everytime a Chinese Spy is arrested while stealing research papers and allied illegal activities they call it racism because they know that is what people are sensitive to. Their assets in Media and public support their cause vehemently framing public opinion the advantage of Chinese.

Since 2003, when revisions were made to an official document outlining the political goals of the People’s Liberation Army, so-called “media warfare” has been an explicit part of Beijing’s military strategy. The aim is to influence public opinion overseas in order to nudge foreign governments into making policies favorable towards China. .

Legal warfare is a manipulation of legal systems by your own legal fraternity. According to its Military Legal Research Center Special Researcher Xun Dandong Legal warfare, at its most basic, involves “arguing that one’s own side is obeying the law, criticizing the other side for violating the law, and making arguments for one’s own side in cases where there are also violations of the law.” Chinese legal warfare includes offensive actions, defensive actions, counterattacking actions, and other forms of combat. The more significant part of legal warfare is sowing the seeds of doubt in the adversary’s mind about the justification of its own position.

A 2007 US Department of Defense report to Congress on China’s military power explained that Chinese strategists had been taking an increasing interest in international law as an instrument to deter adversaries prior to combat. The report brought out that through an orchestrated programme of scholarly articles and symposia, China had begun the work of shaping international opinion in favour of a distorted interpretation of the Law of the Sea by shifting scholarly views and national perspectives away from long-accepted norms of freedom of navigation and towards interpretations of increased coastal state sovereign authority.

Over the past decade, China has exhibited a growing interest in waging an asymmetrical form of warfare in areas that are deemed to constitute its ‘core interests’. Though China has been at logger heads with India over Macmohan Line and its claim over Arunanchal Prahesh an Indian territory but the main bone of contention in Chinese persepective is growing relationship between India and United States. From the near-clash in Doklam in 2017 to today’s bloodiest clash in Galwan the geopolitical tensions and alignments involved are much bigger.

The earlier standoffs at Daulat Beg Oldi and Chumar were of two-three weeks. Demchok followed in 2014, when Chinese troops had the audacity to threaten incursion even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping were signing agreements. Doklam in 2017 was a 73-day standoff to test India’s ability to protect its ally, Bhutan. India did not buckle down and China couldn’t get the mileage it sought. Given that China upped the pressure surprise.

China wants to play the game of deploying salami slicing model to obtain a dominance and extract concessions from India and most of the times in the past it has been able to arm twist India through this strategy which is proceeded by continual 3Ws Military Doctrine of psychological warfare ,media warfare and legal warfare. In order to perfect their agenda of maintaining stronghold in its strategic affairs China uses the excuse of Darbuk-Shyok road at Line of Actual Control in Ladakh.

India is facing a two front war threat from two hostile totalitarian states and both the states are ideologically driven. However in the Galwan Conflict, India seemingly has maintained its tough posturing in its own strategic affairs. The Indian Government’s concerns arise from the fact that the inclusion of the illegal ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’ (CPEC) as a flagship project of ‘OBOR/BRI’, directly impinges on the issue of sovereignty and territorial integrity of India, the Ministry of External Affairs told Lok Sabha on 5 Feb, 2020.

This illegal ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’ (CPEC) passes through parts of the Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh which are under illegal occupation of Pakistan.

At a strategic level, India also recognises that by internationalising the Balochistan issue it is increasing the costs for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Beijing is currently in the midst of pouring a staggering $46 billion into the CPEC.

One of the biggest such projects in Balochistan is the Gwadar port. China is building this to connect its mainland to the Indian Ocean through the Karakoram range so that it can reduce its dependence on the Malacca Straits, a region where it faces rising hostility.

So, will India go the whole hog and seek Balochistan’s independence or maybe consider urging of President of the World Baloch Women’s Forum, Prof. Baloch, urged the Indian government to bring the scattered Baloch leadership in exile to India and ask Indian embassies worldwide to facilitate their visas as Balochi nationals.

It becomes necessary to counter the Chinese aggression by touching their raw nerves and Tibet is the most sensitive part. Writes Ugyen Gyalpo a Tibetian blogger which Indian policy makers should take a cue from while negotiating the current standoff, “In wishful thinking, if Nehru could have been resurrected from his grave and spiritually possess himself into Modi’s body for a day, as a retribution to what he did morally wrong, he could redeem himself by setting the historical fact straight claiming that Tibet was never a part of China as he once said it was.

This one shift on India’s policy towards China on Tibet’s status would open the floodgates on the Tibet support fronts, hitherto fearing for China’s economic prowess to follow suit and cement this fact forever. The United States House of Representatives has already passed a bill to recognize Tibetan Autonomous Region as an independent country.

China is at the anvil to be crushed with the forceful hammer of justice. The global community are sick and tired of its evil and malicious acts. Continents from Africa to America, from Australia to Asia are up and angst against China. People of Hong Kong under siege are seething with anger and so are the Taiwanese and the Japanese. Many of the countries that fell on the belt and road are now awakened from being used and launched reprisal and lawsuits for repatriation and compensation for China’s broken promises. Loan trapped poor African countries are breaking their economic shackles to never collaborate with China on future projects. China is crumbling day and day. China’s economic fortress upon which the only security of the Communist party is built is fast corroding from within.

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